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JackFetch

Summer blockbusters 2011 predictions

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My predictions.

Hits:

Thor..................No competition for two weeks with huge buzz.

Captain America.......A ton of buzz.

Cars 2................It's a kid's movie sequel.

Transformers 3........It's giant robots fighting with hot girls and explosions.

Green Lantern.........Got a ton a buzz.

Harry Potter..........It's the final one so all the fans will go see it.

Flops:

Cowboys and Aliens.....Shouldn't be a summer release.

The Smurfs.............Going to flop hard.

Conan..................Too many strong movies and not a huge fanbase.

Super 8.............................Will get eaten by X-Men and Green Lantern. Doesn't have the Cloverfield buzz.

Wildcards:

Pirates of the Caribbean 4..........Only has a week with no competition.

Hangover 2..........................A hard R comedy will have a hard time this year. I would have released it later in the year.

Kung Fu Panda 2 ....................This and Hangover 2 release the same day and the kid's movie will probably beat the hard R one but it's hard to tell.

X-Men: First Class..................Releases a week after two strong movies, and Super 8 comes out the following week.

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Something would put as a potential wild card would be Bridesmaids. I can totally see it being a movie that fills the Sex and the City girls night out gap in the summer schedule. It also helps that the movie does look hilarious.

One thing that pisses me off? Winnie the Pooh is getting opened against Harry Potter in the states. It's doomed to get lost in the shuffle which is an utter shame.

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Winnie the Pooh would get lost in the shuffle against anything. It's a small audience. Bridesmaids would do good in a different part of the year with no competition. Thor and Priest would both have to flop, which Priest will but Thor won't, for it to do any business.

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Guest TFG1Mike

I'd Argue fot pirates to be a success. Even though I don't care for the franchise a lot of others do. Even with only 1 week with competition it all goes to taste of audiences.

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It's really hard to tell this year because there are so many big franchises that would normally be 150-200 million dollar movies and new franchises that are near guaranteed hits.

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Pirates is going to be huge, those films get around 900 million boxoffice. I think the Hangover 2 is going to well because it's such a great alternative to the other films available, and the first one was a monster, 450 million is huge for a comedy.

Hate to say it, I don't see Green Lantern being a huge hit. The summer is too crowded, and I don't think it's going to get Ironman-style buzz because it's competing in that area with Thor and Captain America, both of whom are being promoted very well and are known tie-ins to that Avengers continuity.

I also think Kung-fu Panda could do well. Better than Cars 2. Sure it's Pixar, and the merch is going to be huge but I think KFP has more goodwill from a character and quality standpoint.

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Different audiences there though, one is for groups of teens and 20's or dates, the other is a family movie. It'll be a good gauge of how important each is to cinema.

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I will most certainly see Cowboys and Aliens. I know it will flop, but really, Cowboys fighting Aliens? It is a concept that is too ridiculous to pass up!

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