2009 Summer Blockbuster Predictions


JackFetch

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  • 2 weeks later...
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Does Bruno count as a summer blockbuster?

Probably not. It's R-rated, which cuts it's audience too much to really be considered a blockbuster. It'll make it's money back and more, but probably won't overperform like the true blockbusters and CGI-fests.

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Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, opens next week on Wednesday, July 15, but the film already represents 61% of daily ticket sales on Fandango.

Advance ticket sales for the new Potter movie are outpacing advance sales for Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and the fifth Potter movie, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, at the same point in those films' sales cycles (eight days before release date).

"Harry continues to be 'The Chosen One', especially among movie fans," says Rick Butler, Chief Operating Officer for Fandango. "'The Half-Blood Prince' is turning out to be one of our fastest-selling titles of the year, and has consistently been a top-seller ever since tickets went on sale on June 17."

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  • 4 weeks later...

So far movies such as THE HANGOVER, STAR TREK, UP and DRAG ME TO HELL have proven to surprise the studios which made them at how much money they've made so far. Oh, everybody expected a Pixar movie like UP to hit big but even they have been surprised at how it's been embraced by all ages, especially older audiences who have been going back to see it.

STAR TREK was a movie that could have went either way but the fact that it simply was a damn good movie helped the word-of-mouth tremendously. The summer's real surprise was THE HANGOVER. Nobody expected that movie to make as much money as it did. And again, the fact that it was an extremely well-made, funny movie helped the word-of-mouth.

TERMINATOR SALVATION turned out to be a disappointment and almost has to laugh. Only in Hollywood can a movie make $300 million and still be considered 'a disappointment'

Was there anybody out there who honestly didn't think that TRANSFORMERS 2 and HARRY POTTER AND THE SEARCH FOR BIGGER WEEKEND OPENING RECORDS wouldn't make any money? Those movies are totally safe from any kind of critical review as their audiences don't give a penguin's pizzle what anybody says about 'em.

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Everyone knew Harry Potter would make money, as they are actually not bad movies.

Transformers was a lot better than people were expecting, so of course the sequel will make money.

Oh, the HARRY POTTER movies are well made, I won't deny that. I've only seen one of them in the theater. The first or second one, I don't remember and while I enjoyed it, it didn't exactly leave me dying for more. The other HARRY POTTER movies I've caught on TV. One thing that amuses me about the whole Potter Phenomenon is how the series, which started off as being targeted for Young Adults has been conscripted by adults. I see the same thing happening with the "Twilight" series.

TRANSFORMERS...well, that's another series that is impervious to objective critical discussion. TRANSFORMERS fans are so fanatically close-minded that I don't even talk about it anymore with my friends who are TRANSFORMERS fans. React to TRANSFORMERS with anything less than joyous orgasms and they start foaming at the mouth with rage while their eyes bulge out insanely.

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I never noticed the link between transformers and Harry Potter before, maybe we'll see an annoying teen battle to the death at some point.

I didn't touch transformers 2 in the cinema as I couldn't give a shit after seeing the trailer.

My wife took me to see TRANSFORMERS 2 after I had been away from home for five days visiting my father in Bennetsville, SC for Father's Day. So she wanted to treat me to a movie. But why TRANSFORMERS 2 I have no idea as we both saw the first one at her brother's house and neither one of us liked it. Otherwise i wouldn't have bothered. My interest in everything TRANSFORMERS is zero.

My thing was the SPEED RACER movie which I loved to death and I'm still wondering who I gotta kill to get a JONNY QUEST or SPACE GHOST movie...

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TRANSFORMERS...well, that's another series that is impervious to objective critical discussion. TRANSFORMERS fans are so fanatically close-minded that I don't even talk about it anymore with my friends who are TRANSFORMERS fans. React to TRANSFORMERS with anything less than joyous orgasms and they start foaming at the mouth with rage while their eyes bulge out insanely.

Unfair. I'm a big 'Formers fan from my youth but I'll admit the weaknesses of the franchise, and I'd vomit fiery bile all over Bay and his monstrous chimera of sex and steel.

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TRANSFORMERS...well, that's another series that is impervious to objective critical discussion. TRANSFORMERS fans are so fanatically close-minded that I don't even talk about it anymore with my friends who are TRANSFORMERS fans. React to TRANSFORMERS with anything less than joyous orgasms and they start foaming at the mouth with rage while their eyes bulge out insanely.

Unfair. I'm a big 'Formers fan from my youth but I'll admit the weaknesses of the franchise, and I'd vomit fiery bile all over Bay and his monstrous chimera of sex and steel.

Well, that's you :D I have friends who are Transformers fans that I cannot discuss the movies, cartoon shows, comic books, etc with as it usually ends up in a bloody struggle in the middle of Main Street at high noon with rusty bowie knives. I have one friend who would not speak to me until and unless I reviewed the first TRANSFORMERS movie on BiTD and I told him where to go and what to do after he got there. And I understand fandom, believe me. I was a sci-fi/comic book/horror/fantasy geek long before it was 'cool' or 'fashionable'. But some of these TRANSFORMERS fans scare the piss outta me.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Here are the numbers as of today:

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $396,758,605

Up $288,223,782

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $283,879,025

The Hangover $265,790,452

Star Trek $255,936,227

Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs $190,855,447

X-Men Origins: Wolverine $179,801,299

Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian $175,538,731

Angels and Demons $133,375,846

Terminator Salvation: The Future Begins $125,093,360

G-Force $99,056,616

G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra $98,577,529

G.I. Joe is still pulling in money so it will overtake G-Force for the number 11 spot, but if it makes it to Terminator, it will be just barely. Also of note, these are just US domestic numbers. Some movies did better overseas, such as Terminator. It actually made around the same amount as Star Trek overall. G.I. Joe is also huge overseas and is currently the number one movie outside the US.

Both Harry Potter and Transformers are over the 800 million dollar mark including overseas. Nothing else even comes close. They are obviously this Summer's biggest movies.

There were no real big bombs this summer, except maybe The Goods and possibly Aliens in the Attic. I don't know their budgets yet though.

http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/today.php

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